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Beijing, Midtown Alliance Forum, a large number of national real estate agglomerations, Mr. Lin Zhong, Chairman of Xuhui Group, which is known as “Real Estate Strategist” in the industry, delivered a professional speech entitled “The Real Estate World in the Eyes of the Future for Three Years”. Fortunately, as a forum for strategic media partners, Lin Dong’s wonderful views were recorded on the spot.

How will the Chinese property market move in the next three years?

Especially in the 2018 year of the winter, when the housing enterprises are confused and anxious, at this moment, the forest clearly gives the future Chinese property market 2019, 2020, 2021 three keywords, extremely streamlined, and take turns.

2019 is a stable word;

2020 is a turn word;

2021 is a word.

In the opening remarks, Lin Zhong first stated that the prediction of the future is very important, but the more important thing for enterprises is to improve the sensitivity to the environment, that is, the response is more important than prediction.

How to predict the short, medium and long term of real estate? Lin gave his methodology.

First, in the short-term policy, China's real estate is a policy city. More specifically, the core is because of the government's policy. The core will directly or indirectly affect the three important variables of the overall supply, demand and price of the real estate industry. Affect the entire property market. So looking at the short-term is to study policy.

Second, look at the population and economy in the medium term. The core looks at good life, affordability and potential needs. Why are some cities in China declining, and some cities are growing at the core of their population, the number of potential needs behind the economy, the strength of their ability to pay, and the differences in their aspirations for improvement and improvement.

Third, long-term national transport, China does not have a battlefield, China's economy is growing at a high speed, which is itself a good national transport. In the future, China's national economy will prosper, and the people will be strong, and Xu Hui will always look forward to the future of real estate.

In fact, long-term optimism means that you will have a longer-term perspective when considering corporate development, and will not be too anxious in short-term market volatility, and even see opportunities behind adjustments. At present, for the real estate cycle, 3 years is a short cycle, while the medium cycle is 5 to 10 years, and the long cycle is a cycle of more than 10 years.

2019 is a stable word.

In 2018, China's property market has been raging in two days. In the first half of the year, it continued to grow at a high speed. In the second half of the year, especially after the 731 meeting, it gradually turned cold from August. A Vanke lived to make the whole industry more anxious, and the funds tightened. Sales are weak, declining, customers are waiting, the performance growth rate is falling, the return is difficult, and the cash is insufficient... In the second half of the real estate, housing companies are clamoring for winter and hardships. And in 2019, I did not see any policy loosening. What do you think of it in 2019? In this regard, Lin gave a judgment - steady! 2019 is a year in which Chinese real estate is dominated by "stable". Specifically, a stable font is now in seven aspects.

First, the stability. Even though 2019 is about the same as 18 years of real estate sales, or 5% less, the whole industry is still a large volume. In 2019, the annual sales are expected to reach 12 trillion, 13 trillion, so the amount is Steady.

Second, the price is stable. The national average price will be stable or slightly increased, and house prices will neither rise sharply nor fall sharply, but will be a stable whole.

Third, steady investment. The growth rate of real estate investment in 2019 will continue to be around 6%, similar to the rate of GDP growth;

Fourth, stable leverage. In the industry in 2019, there will be de-leverage of “stable and falling” to reduce debt;

Fifth, the development of enterprises is growing steadily. It is possible that the growth rate will be moderately slower than 2018 in 2019, but the growth of developers' performance is sustainable.

Sixth, stable expectations, after 208 years of adjustment, the market outlook is expected to be more stable, the fluctuations will not be too large.

Seventh, the policy of stability, the real estate policy will continue to be divided into cities in 2019, and price management will be relatively stable.

2020 is a "turn" word.

After the stability of 2019, there will be a "turn" in 2020. There are several changes, and Lin gave seven judgments:

First, the policy has turned loose; it is expected that some encouraging policies will emerge in 2020;

Second, the market is getting warmer. In 2020, the market will be better than the market in 2019;

Third, the supply and demand structure will turn better. At present, the structure of supply and demand in the property market is not balanced. The typical big imbalance is that China's property market is often in short supply in cities with large demand, while in cities with less demand, there is a surplus of supply and demand. However, the supply and demand structure will gradually improve in 2020.

Fourth, high growth turned to high quality. By 2020, the high-speed growth of housing enterprises will change in the past. Brand-scale housing enterprises will pursue high-quality growth. Because of the high-quality constraints, similar TOP30 housing enterprises will maintain about 10% to 20% growth, which will be moderately lower than before. It is understandable that housing companies should maintain product quality, financial quality, and quality of operations, and the appropriate decline in performance growth.

Fifth, the transformation of housing enterprises into manufacturing services. In the future, after 2020, the profit of housing enterprises will be relatively thin, the price will be relatively stable, and the slight difference in competition between housing enterprises will have a magnifying effect in the future. After 2020, the strategic homogenization of large-scale housing enterprises is more serious. Your cost control is more strict, and there can be 1 to 2% difference, which may bring huge profits and differences in corporate benefits.

Sixth, the profit is flat. In the future, the real estate industry will gradually return to the whole society's profits, and there will be basic profits. In 2020, the average profit of the entire industry will definitely decline from the first half of 2018.

Seventh: demand changes to quality.

Many people say that China's future birth rate will be serious, so real estate is even worse. In this regard, Lin stressed that the macroscopic trend is problematic and there are no problems with micro-enterprises. For example, many industries in China are not prosperous. But there are still excellent companies. For Chinese real estate, the market share of a real estate enterprise is still very small. Housing companies do not need to pay too much attention to the long-term impact of the macro birth rate decline on China's birth rate. In turn, you only have real core competitiveness in the micro-field of this industry. The products and services are competitive, your costs are competitive, and you can actually live very well.

2021 is a "start" word.

After 2021, China's real estate will usher in a new cycle.

Different from the previous cycle, the growth rate of real estate enterprises will not be as fast as 50% or even 80%. Second, the future government policy regulation will be smarter and more efficient. Future policies will not allow the new cycle to enter a “high-amplitude” growth. The new cycle after 2021 will be a “stable growth” overall.

What changes will happen to the new cycle after 2021?

First, after 2021, the growth rate of housing enterprises will drop significantly, but there is no need for housing companies to be pessimistic. Lin Zhong reminded that at that time, the scale of housing enterprises was even larger. Even if the real estate growth rate is 6% per year in the future, that is to say, it is equivalent to the GDP growth rate, then the performance scale will double in almost 8 years.

Second, the new round of real estate in 2021 will make the market healthier and more quality. The government also hopes that the industry will be stable, and it is a good thing for the strategic stability of developers and the long-term management measures.

Third, the rise cycle is long, the down cycle is short, and real estate is welcoming the next gold for 10 years. The future is China's urbanization from 58% to 70%, and will usher in the next 10 years of gold in China's real estate.

In the future, Chinese cities will develop around 19 urban agglomerations, especially the development of some emerging urban agglomerations in the Midwest. More specifically.

First, in the future, China's north-south Guangzhou-Shenzhen first-tier cities will enter a stage of operation and holding, which is not suitable for housing enterprises to scale. If housing enterprises continue to scale in first-tier cities, then it is the cause of the fish.

Second, the future of China's second-line and strong third-line is the best home market battlefield.

Third, the urbanization of the third, fourth and fifth tiers will accelerate. At present, they are still at a low urbanization rate of around 40%, and will grow faster in the future.

At the end of the 18-minute speech, Lin Zhong once again reminded that the property market is really difficult to predict. My predictions may also be wrong, but I care more about the fact that housing companies should be more sensitive to the environment and more dynamic. This is more important.

---- From "Financial Network"